O‘ZBEKISTON RESPUBLIKASI IQTISODIYOTIGA TARMOQLAR BO‘YICHA SUV RESURSLARIDAN FOYDALANISHNING TA’SIRINI EKONOMETRIK TAHLILI
Keywords:
Suv resurslari, iqtisodiy o‘sish, suvdan foydalanish, Cobb–Douglas ishlab chiqarish funksiyasi, suv samaradorligi.Abstract
Suv resurslari, ayniqsa suv tanqisligi kuzatiladigan mamlakatda, barqaror iqtisodiy o‘sishni ta’minlashda muhim omil hisoblanadi. Mazkur tadqiqotda 1996–2022-yillar davrida O‘zbekistonda iqtisodiyot tarmoqlari bo‘yicha suv resurslaridan foydalanishning iqtisodiy o‘sishga ta’siri Cobb–Douglas ishlab chiqarish funksiyasi asosida tahlil qilindi. Baholash natijalariga ko‘ra, kapital zaxirasining 1 foizga oshishi aholi jon boshiga YaIMni o‘rtacha 0,10 foizga, mehnat resurslarining 1 foizga oshishi esa 1,78 foizga oshiradi. Aksincha, qishloq xo‘jaligi, maishiy va sanoat tarmoqlarida suv olish hajmining 1 foizga ortishi aholi jon boshiga YaIMning mos ravishda 5,00 foizga, 0,43 foizga va 0,22 foizga kamayishiga olib keladi. Modelning izohlash darajasi yuqori bo‘lib, determinatsiya koeffitsiyenti R² = 0,997 ni tashkil etdi. Diagnostik testlar qoldiqlarning normal taqsimlanganligini (Jarque–Bera p = 0,390) ko‘rsatgan bo‘lsa-da, modelda avtokorrelyatsiya mavjudligi (Durbin–Watson = 0,808) aniqlandi. Tadqiqot natijalari uzoq muddatli iqtisodiy o‘sishni ta’minlash uchun suvdan foydalanish samaradorligini oshirish va barqaror suv resurslarini boshqarish siyosatini kuchaytirish zarurligini ko‘rsatadi.
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