TRADE POLICY, IMPORT STRUCTURE AND EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION IN MIDDLE INCOME ASIAN ECONOMIES
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export diversification, export concentration, trade policy, import structure, middle income economies, Asia, panel data, resource curseAbstrak
In middle income Asian economies, export diversification plays a crucial role in determining both sustainable economic growth and economic resilience, since relying on a narrow export base makes economies more susceptible to external shocks and price fluctuations. Using panel data for 27 middle income Asian countries (2001–2024), this study examines how trade policy and import structure affect export concentration, applying Pooled OLS, Fixed Effects, Random Effects and Bayesian Model Averaging. Natural resource rents are found to be the strongest driver of export concentration, supporting the resource curse hypothesis, while manufacturing value added and tertiary education are the main forces for diversification. Aggregate trade policy variables, such as tariffs and trade openness, are not found to be robust predictors once country heterogeneity is accounted for. The findings highlight the importance of industrial policy, higher education investment and resource revenue management for sustainable export diversification.
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