FINANCING SOURCES OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTPUT: ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE FROM SAMARKAND REGION, UZBEKISTAN

Kamariddin Khalbekov

Mualliflar

Kamariddin Khalbekov Muallif

{$ Etel}:

investment projects, project financing, foreign direct investment, regional growth, elasticity, diversification, Uzbekistan.

Abstrak

This paper examines how the main financing sources of investment projects relate to regional economic output in Samarkand region, Uzbekistan. Using official annual data for 2010– 2025 (n=16), a log-log model links gross regional product (GRP) to fixed-capital investment financed by foreign investment and loans (FIL) and by households’ own funds (HF). The baseline model explains 97.0% of the variation in GRP; the estimated elasticities are 0.28 for FIL and 0.69 for HF, both significant at 1%. When a common time trend is added, the FIL coefficient becomes insignificant, while the HF coefficient remains positive and significant (0.14). The results suggest that the sharp post-2019 inflow of foreign capital has so far moved together with the regional growth trend rather than lifting output above it, whereas domestic private funds remain significantly associated with output in levels; neither source is significant in a year-on-year growth specification. Combined with a rising concentration of financing (Herfindahl–Hirschman index of 0.521 in January–September 2025, with foreign sources at 69.5% and bank loans at 2.8%), the findings support diversifying the financing mix of regional investment projects toward bank credit and domestic private capital.

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