O‘ZBEKISTONDA TABIIY HARAKATNING ASOSIY KO‘RSATKICHLARINI ARIMA MODELI YORDAMIDA DEMOGRAFIK PROGNOZLASH
Keywords:
O‘zbekiston, tabiiy harakat, tug‘ilish, o‘lim, tabiiy o‘sish, demografik prognozlash, ARIMA modeli, vaqt qatori, statistikaAbstract
Mazkur maqolada O‘zbekistonda tabiiy harakatning asosiy ko‘rsatkichlari — tug‘ilish, o‘lim va tabiiy o‘sish demografik jarayonlarining istiqboldagi dinamikasini baholash uchun vaqt qatorlari tahliliga asoslangan ARIMA modeli qo‘llanildi. Tadqiqot uchun 2000–2024-yillar davridagi Davlat statistika qo‘mitasi ma’lumotlaridan foydalanildi. ARIMA modelining identifikatsiya, baholash va diagnostika bosqichlari ketma-ket amalga oshirilib, demografik ko‘rsatkichlarning kelgusi besh yillik davr uchun prognozlari shakllantirildi. Empirik natijalar tug‘ilishning pasayish tendensiyasi sekinlashayotganini, o‘lim ko‘rsatkichlari nisbatan barqarorlashayotganini, tabiiy o‘sish darajasi esa hududlar kesimida sezilarli farqlar bilan davom etayotganini ko‘rsatdi. Prognozlar demografik siyosatni rejalashtirish, aholining barqaror rivojlanishini ta’minlash hamda mehnat resurslari taqsimotini samarali boshqarishda ilmiy asos sifatida qo‘llanilishi mumkin.
Downloads
References
1. Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C., Ljung, G. M. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. 5th edition. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2016. – 712 p.
2. World Health Organization (WHO). World Health Statistics 2022: Monitoring Health for the SDGs. Geneva: WHO, 2022. – URL: https://www.who.int
3. UNICEF. Levels and Trends in Child Mortality 2023. New York: UNICEF, 2023. – URL: https://data.unicef.org
4. Walker, C. L. F., Rudan, I., Liu, L. et al. Global burden of childhood disease and mortality trends. The Lancet, 2020, Vol. 395(10223), pp. 1607–1618.
5. Akombi, B. J., Renzaho, A. M. N. Multivariate analysis of child mortality in developing countries: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. PLoS ONE, 2019, Vol. 14(11), e0225220.
6. Wooldridge, J. M. Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. 7th edition. Boston: Cengage Learning, 2020. – 912 p.
7. Baltagi, B. H. Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. 6th edition. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2021. – 384 p.
8. UNFPA Central Asia. Maternal and Child Health in Central Asia: Regional Report 2022. Almaty: UNFPA, 2022. – URL: https://eeca.unfpa.org
9. Davlat statistika qo‘mitasi. O‘zbekiston Respublikasida demografik jarayonlar statistik to‘plami. Toshkent: DSQ nashriyoti, 2023. – 210 b.
10. O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Sog‘liqni saqlash vazirligi. Onalar va bolalar salomatligi bo‘yicha milliy hisobot. Toshkent: SSQ, 2023. – 178 b.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
License Terms of our Journal
